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Profiting From Early Pace: A Back-To-Lay Strategy

Written by Ricky Taylor

More than a decade ago I developed a formula to produce what I termed ‘pace ratings’ for all UK and Irish flat races. These ratings were based on the information contained in race readers published reports about how a horse had performed in a race (termed ‘comments in running’).

The useful thing about these comments is that professional race readers use standard words and phrases to describe a horse’s style and passage through a race.

For instance they use terms such as ‘chased leaders’, ‘led early’, ‘raced prominently’ etc to describe horses that were setting or who were close to the pace in a race.

Based on this information I was able to turn these comments into a set of mathematical probabilities to estimate whether or not a horse was likely to take an early lead or race prominently in a race.

The ratings were based on painstaking research, based on a sample of over 350,000 flat race performances.

The statistical modelling of this data basically assigned weights or points to each type of comment in the form book. The sum of these points produced a score out of 100 to express how likely a horse was to be a pacesetter. The basic principle though, and one which you can develop yourself is…

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Using The Right Tools For The Right Job

Written by Jason Lambert

When you first get hold of any data, it will usually come in an MS Excel format with tons of rows and tons of columns. While this is great, pretty much everyone is familiar with a spreadsheet, Excel does have several drawbacks. I’d like to go through some of these drawbacks and suggest an improved way at looking at your data.

The first data I obtained was UK win market data from Betfair. I managed to retrieve 4 year’s worth from the Betfair directory. After spending an age combining all 1460 individual spreadsheets I was eager to get underway looking for a profitable way to play the Horses….

Using The Right Tools For The Job

Just ~350k rows of data and my computer couldn’t deal with even the simplest of tasks without crashing.

This is where I can suggest a new way of storing and analysing your data…

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