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Strike Out

Written by John Jackson

“The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.”
John Maynard Keynes, 1935

Michael has suggested the staking strategy level stakes of twice the longest losing run for betting on a tipster’s recommendations; Eddie has suggested level stakes of three times an estimate of the longest losing run and estimates the longest losing run via the number of bets in a history and the historical strike rate. These are traditional approaches with intuitive appeal … but there are better methods, one of which I presented in my November money management article.

How then do I convince you to upgrade?

Let’s begin with a thought experiment where…

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The Jury Returns A Verdict

Written by John F. Jackson

From time to time subscribers write to me with their betting history asking “How could I have made more money here?”

Typically I analyse their results in the fashion described in the sequel, present a few options to improve returns … then the petitioner ignores my recommendations accompanied by comments such as “I would not be comfortable operating in that fashion”.

Undaunted, I enquire how they feel about going to the dentist. “No problem, I go every 6 months … and boy does it hurt when the hygienist does the scaling and polishing!”

If the penny doesn’t drop after my silence … I give up.

Should I instead present a set of my own results and show how strategy XYZ would work?

Perhaps a degree of impersonalisation might be more persuasive?

Most likely this approach would be rejected even more quickly, for what is there to say I haven’t selected just the results to illustrate my pet theory?

So, to try and establish an impartial, yet firm, foundation I’ve decided to use a proofed set of results where I hope there can be no question of manipulation.

Let us suppose (somewhat immodestly) that Timeform has asked us to examine the selections from their Jury service in an effort to improve upon that service’s recommended staking plan.

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Determining Your Bankroll Size On A New Strategy

Written by Eddie Lloyd

One of the most important factors to successful betting is determining what size bankroll to use, and then the continual management of that bank.

Understanding the relationship between losing streaks and the odds at which we bet is the first place to start.

If we were to bet at average odds of 9/1 then, assuming we’re break-even on our profits, we would expect a long-term strike rate of 10%.

We need to find this information from our own betting history in order to help us determine what size bankroll we should be using. In fact, this is information that you should be recording anyway.

Once we know our strike rate, we can use the following calculation to help us decide on the size of the bank.

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