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A Guide To Dutching

Written by Eddie Lloyd

The name dutching is originally thought to have derived from Arthur Flegenheimer also known as Dutch Schultz a prolific 1920’s mobster boss who used the method to gain an edge at the track. By backing several horses in one race it was thought that the then accountant to Al Capone could secure a pre-determined profit.

So that’s a bit of history but what of the method itself?

Let’s break down an eight runner race. I have listed the eight runners below and added alongside them the odds and converted these into percentages. These percentages are important and I’ll explain why below:

Horse 1: 11/4 (26.67%)
Horse 2: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 3: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 4: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 5: 7/1 (12.50%)
Horse 6: 10/1 (9.09%)
Horse 7: 18/1 (5.26%)
Horse 8: 22/1 (4.35%)

Once we’ve calculated our percentages we can now use these to calculate how we will construct our bet.

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Bad E/W Races And How To Use Them

Written by Eddie Lloyd

Bad e/w races are where a bookie has no choice but to offer an over broke book on the place market of an e/w bet.

Savvy punters have been exploiting this loop hole for years and it has proved harder and harder to get on these races with any sizable bet as it becomes more common knowledge of this unavoidable discrepancy.

So, the bad e/w bet is something we can exploit but what exactly is this discrepancy.

We can usually spot this type of race when seeing an odds on favourite. Let’s look at a 10 runner race with a favourite trading at 1/9.

I’ve set out the runners below in order of which they stand in the market. Next to each horses odds I’ve set out in decimals what the place odds are from the bookmaker…

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Profiting From Early Pace: A Back-To-Lay Strategy

Written by Ricky Taylor

More than a decade ago I developed a formula to produce what I termed ‘pace ratings’ for all UK and Irish flat races. These ratings were based on the information contained in race readers published reports about how a horse had performed in a race (termed ‘comments in running’).

The useful thing about these comments is that professional race readers use standard words and phrases to describe a horse’s style and passage through a race.

For instance they use terms such as ‘chased leaders’, ‘led early’, ‘raced prominently’ etc to describe horses that were setting or who were close to the pace in a race.

Based on this information I was able to turn these comments into a set of mathematical probabilities to estimate whether or not a horse was likely to take an early lead or race prominently in a race.

The ratings were based on painstaking research, based on a sample of over 350,000 flat race performances.

The statistical modelling of this data basically assigned weights or points to each type of comment in the form book. The sum of these points produced a score out of 100 to express how likely a horse was to be a pacesetter. The basic principle though, and one which you can develop yourself is…

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An Odds Line Creation Concept

Written by Michael Wilding

As the title suggests, what follows is a concept. It’s an idea I’ve been playing around with and as of yet haven’t come to any firm conclusions. But, I thought it would be of value to share the idea.

The idea stemmed a while ago when I was talking to a US player. They were lamenting the fact that they couldn’t place bets on Betfair and, what followed, was a hearty discussion on different markets.

As we know, Betfair is a free market. It’s a sports market formed purely of individuals who want to take different sides of the bet and this results, when there is enough liquidity, in accurate odds.

So I started by looking at the basis of Betfair as a free market and using the knowledge contained within it to see if it was possible to replicate it artificially to create an automatically generated odds line.

The primary aim was to create an effective odds line for betting by means of using a method that required as little “man-handling” as possible. The perfect goal would be to put a range of factors in, let it do its work and have an effective odds line come out.

Unlikely I know, but that was the ultimate goal.

First of all we needed to emulate the quantity of different players needed to create the liquidity. For this we would…

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Odds Line Creation

Written by Eddie Lloyd

Creating a tissue is what you need to do if you want to find value. Without value you are never going to be able to make a profit, which makes it a key concept to understand.

As a more traditional handicapper, my processes are different to those who use statistics and mathematical models.

So, in this article, I thought I’d break down the 2.50 Fakenham on the 25th October 2013 as an example of how I construct my personal tissues.

This is a 7 runner handicap over hurdles, and I’ll set it out below for you to see.

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Visualising Data

Written by Michael Wilding

Although I’m going to be writing about horse racing throughout the rest of this article, the principles I’m writing about hold true across all forms of sports betting. In fact they hold true across all forms of data analysis.

It’s a known fact that for most people it’s easier to absorb knowledge that is displayed in a graphical manner. It’s for this reason that the world we know is developing into a media based culture. Everywhere you look there are images and videos, and the amount of text and numerical information is being reduced.

When we look at horse racing information all we see is numbers. If you are using a website such as the Racing Post then there are more graphics, but the overwhelming impression is still of numbers.

We see form figures, age, weight, days since last run, weight, OR, TS, RPR and odds. And, that’s just the basic information.

Most of the numbers provided both by the racing industry and by private companies are unexplained anywhere, which is actually something I feel needs to be of priority in the world of horse racing if it’s going to gain more followers. But that is for another article!

When we start getting into more advanced analysis, the quantity of different numbers rapidly increases. Personally I calculate my own factors and there are hundreds which get combined in different ways depending on race conditions.

In this article I want to look at an approach to visualising this information in order to more quickly assimilate the information we are looking at.

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Jumpers To Follow 2013/14

Written by Ricky Taylor

The 2013/14 jump race season may officially be six months old already, but November is the month when the season really starts to hit top gear.

At this stage I normally like to reacquaint myself with the form from the previous year by developing a list of horses in follow in the big races.

In this article I want to set out some of my early thoughts on the top horses.

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