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Profiting From Early Pace: A Back-To-Lay Strategy

Written by Ricky Taylor

More than a decade ago I developed a formula to produce what I termed ‘pace ratings’ for all UK and Irish flat races. These ratings were based on the information contained in race readers published reports about how a horse had performed in a race (termed ‘comments in running’).

The useful thing about these comments is that professional race readers use standard words and phrases to describe a horse’s style and passage through a race.

For instance they use terms such as ‘chased leaders’, ‘led early’, ‘raced prominently’ etc to describe horses that were setting or who were close to the pace in a race.

Based on this information I was able to turn these comments into a set of mathematical probabilities to estimate whether or not a horse was likely to take an early lead or race prominently in a race.

The ratings were based on painstaking research, based on a sample of over 350,000 flat race performances.

The statistical modelling of this data basically assigned weights or points to each type of comment in the form book. The sum of these points produced a score out of 100 to express how likely a horse was to be a pacesetter. The basic principle though, and one which you can develop yourself is…

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