Get Your First SmartSigger Issue FREE!

Learn to make profits using the same techniques as the pros with SmartSigger.
Join us NOW for just £4.75 per month and get your first issue of the UK's No. 1
Betting Magazine FREE!

A Guide To Dutching

Written by Eddie Lloyd

The name dutching is originally thought to have derived from Arthur Flegenheimer also known as Dutch Schultz a prolific 1920’s mobster boss who used the method to gain an edge at the track. By backing several horses in one race it was thought that the then accountant to Al Capone could secure a pre-determined profit.

So that’s a bit of history but what of the method itself?

Let’s break down an eight runner race. I have listed the eight runners below and added alongside them the odds and converted these into percentages. These percentages are important and I’ll explain why below:

Horse 1: 11/4 (26.67%)
Horse 2: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 3: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 4: 4/1 (20%)
Horse 5: 7/1 (12.50%)
Horse 6: 10/1 (9.09%)
Horse 7: 18/1 (5.26%)
Horse 8: 22/1 (4.35%)

Once we’ve calculated our percentages we can now use these to calculate how we will construct our bet.

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Patrick Veitch

Written by Kieran Ward

I’m a firm believer that one route to success, in any endeavour, is to study the behaviour, methods and psychology of those who have already achieved that success and then try and replicate their way of operating.

If we are looking for success in our gambling endeavours we need to acquire a good knowledge of the behaviour and psychology of successful gamblers. Methods will wax and wane in their effectiveness, but the behaviour and mind-set that is needed to succeed should remain constant.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at the life and career of one of the most successful gamblers of recent years, Patrick Veitch.

I’m sure there are many out there who are Veitch’s equal or better in handicapping terms, but very few who have achieved his level of financial success. Veitch claims that he and his associates won more than £20,000,000 in a ten year period from the late 90’s.

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Bad E/W Races And How To Use Them

Written by Eddie Lloyd

Bad e/w races are where a bookie has no choice but to offer an over broke book on the place market of an e/w bet.

Savvy punters have been exploiting this loop hole for years and it has proved harder and harder to get on these races with any sizable bet as it becomes more common knowledge of this unavoidable discrepancy.

So, the bad e/w bet is something we can exploit but what exactly is this discrepancy.

We can usually spot this type of race when seeing an odds on favourite. Let’s look at a 10 runner race with a favourite trading at 1/9.

I’ve set out the runners below in order of which they stand in the market. Next to each horses odds I’ve set out in decimals what the place odds are from the bookmaker…

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Profiting From Early Pace: A Back-To-Lay Strategy

Written by Ricky Taylor

More than a decade ago I developed a formula to produce what I termed ‘pace ratings’ for all UK and Irish flat races. These ratings were based on the information contained in race readers published reports about how a horse had performed in a race (termed ‘comments in running’).

The useful thing about these comments is that professional race readers use standard words and phrases to describe a horse’s style and passage through a race.

For instance they use terms such as ‘chased leaders’, ‘led early’, ‘raced prominently’ etc to describe horses that were setting or who were close to the pace in a race.

Based on this information I was able to turn these comments into a set of mathematical probabilities to estimate whether or not a horse was likely to take an early lead or race prominently in a race.

The ratings were based on painstaking research, based on a sample of over 350,000 flat race performances.

The statistical modelling of this data basically assigned weights or points to each type of comment in the form book. The sum of these points produced a score out of 100 to express how likely a horse was to be a pacesetter. The basic principle though, and one which you can develop yourself is…

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Strike Out

Written by John Jackson

“The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.”
John Maynard Keynes, 1935

Michael has suggested the staking strategy level stakes of twice the longest losing run for betting on a tipster’s recommendations; Eddie has suggested level stakes of three times an estimate of the longest losing run and estimates the longest losing run via the number of bets in a history and the historical strike rate. These are traditional approaches with intuitive appeal … but there are better methods, one of which I presented in my November money management article.

How then do I convince you to upgrade?

Let’s begin with a thought experiment where…

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Using The Right Tools For The Right Job

Written by Jason Lambert

When you first get hold of any data, it will usually come in an MS Excel format with tons of rows and tons of columns. While this is great, pretty much everyone is familiar with a spreadsheet, Excel does have several drawbacks. I’d like to go through some of these drawbacks and suggest an improved way at looking at your data.

The first data I obtained was UK win market data from Betfair. I managed to retrieve 4 year’s worth from the Betfair directory. After spending an age combining all 1460 individual spreadsheets I was eager to get underway looking for a profitable way to play the Horses….

Using The Right Tools For The Job

Just ~350k rows of data and my computer couldn’t deal with even the simplest of tasks without crashing.

This is where I can suggest a new way of storing and analysing your data…

Join Now To Continue Reading…

An Odds Line Creation Concept

Written by Michael Wilding

As the title suggests, what follows is a concept. It’s an idea I’ve been playing around with and as of yet haven’t come to any firm conclusions. But, I thought it would be of value to share the idea.

The idea stemmed a while ago when I was talking to a US player. They were lamenting the fact that they couldn’t place bets on Betfair and, what followed, was a hearty discussion on different markets.

As we know, Betfair is a free market. It’s a sports market formed purely of individuals who want to take different sides of the bet and this results, when there is enough liquidity, in accurate odds.

So I started by looking at the basis of Betfair as a free market and using the knowledge contained within it to see if it was possible to replicate it artificially to create an automatically generated odds line.

The primary aim was to create an effective odds line for betting by means of using a method that required as little “man-handling” as possible. The perfect goal would be to put a range of factors in, let it do its work and have an effective odds line come out.

Unlikely I know, but that was the ultimate goal.

First of all we needed to emulate the quantity of different players needed to create the liquidity. For this we would…

Join Now To Continue Reading…

The Jury Returns A Verdict

Written by John F. Jackson

From time to time subscribers write to me with their betting history asking “How could I have made more money here?”

Typically I analyse their results in the fashion described in the sequel, present a few options to improve returns … then the petitioner ignores my recommendations accompanied by comments such as “I would not be comfortable operating in that fashion”.

Undaunted, I enquire how they feel about going to the dentist. “No problem, I go every 6 months … and boy does it hurt when the hygienist does the scaling and polishing!”

If the penny doesn’t drop after my silence … I give up.

Should I instead present a set of my own results and show how strategy XYZ would work?

Perhaps a degree of impersonalisation might be more persuasive?

Most likely this approach would be rejected even more quickly, for what is there to say I haven’t selected just the results to illustrate my pet theory?

So, to try and establish an impartial, yet firm, foundation I’ve decided to use a proofed set of results where I hope there can be no question of manipulation.

Let us suppose (somewhat immodestly) that Timeform has asked us to examine the selections from their Jury service in an effort to improve upon that service’s recommended staking plan.

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Odds Line Creation

Written by Eddie Lloyd

Creating a tissue is what you need to do if you want to find value. Without value you are never going to be able to make a profit, which makes it a key concept to understand.

As a more traditional handicapper, my processes are different to those who use statistics and mathematical models.

So, in this article, I thought I’d break down the 2.50 Fakenham on the 25th October 2013 as an example of how I construct my personal tissues.

This is a 7 runner handicap over hurdles, and I’ll set it out below for you to see.

Join Now To Continue Reading…

Visualising Data

Written by Michael Wilding

Although I’m going to be writing about horse racing throughout the rest of this article, the principles I’m writing about hold true across all forms of sports betting. In fact they hold true across all forms of data analysis.

It’s a known fact that for most people it’s easier to absorb knowledge that is displayed in a graphical manner. It’s for this reason that the world we know is developing into a media based culture. Everywhere you look there are images and videos, and the amount of text and numerical information is being reduced.

When we look at horse racing information all we see is numbers. If you are using a website such as the Racing Post then there are more graphics, but the overwhelming impression is still of numbers.

We see form figures, age, weight, days since last run, weight, OR, TS, RPR and odds. And, that’s just the basic information.

Most of the numbers provided both by the racing industry and by private companies are unexplained anywhere, which is actually something I feel needs to be of priority in the world of horse racing if it’s going to gain more followers. But that is for another article!

When we start getting into more advanced analysis, the quantity of different numbers rapidly increases. Personally I calculate my own factors and there are hundreds which get combined in different ways depending on race conditions.

In this article I want to look at an approach to visualising this information in order to more quickly assimilate the information we are looking at.

Join Now To Continue Reading…